Subjective Probability of Project Success
Article Revised: March 27, 2019
One of the early lessons in all of our courses asks students to enter a number for the “subjective probability of success” for the project. Several students enter a 1 in this worksheet cell. This indicates that they believe that the project is certain to succeed. In the real world, this is extremely unlikely. Considering all of the possible ways a project might fail, a number in the 90%+ range is so optimistic as to be wishful thinking. I’ve seen so many project fail due to reasons that might have been anticipated and acted on. Looking at a project through rose-colored glasses doesn’t do anyone any favors. The best time to take a cold, hard look at any project is before it has begun. Doing so will save innumerable headaches down the road.
If you are interested in Six Sigma Certification and Training, contact Pyzdek Institute today!