The Six Sigma ‘Crystal Ball’: Predictive Power in Your Hands

Understanding outcomes and interpreting historical events becomes less challenging with the right tools. One considerable issue Six Sigma professionals often grapple with is articulating the methodology to those unfamiliar with it. This can occur anywhere – from a workplace meeting to a casual social gathering. Telling someone, “I’m a Six Sigma Black Belt,” may not translate into a comprehensive understanding of the role. I’ve sought an effective way to encapsulate what Six Sigma professionals do, and I believe I’ve found it: We develop predictive tools – akin to crystal balls – that guide the future trajectory of our organizations.

Our ‘crystal ball’ in the Six Sigma realm is more formally known as a “model.” The most applicable definition of a model within Six Sigma is a systematically arranged set of assumptions, data, and deductions represented as a mathematical description of a concept or circumstance; it could also be a computer simulation based on such a system. Models offer a window into the future. They help us understand how modifying certain inputs will yield predictable changes in outputs. By tying causes to effects in a rigorous manner, models allow us to assess the validity of our plans and strategies before we set them in motion.

Models enhance the effectiveness of feedback. By juxtaposing feedback with our predictions, we can refine our models and devise methods to address root causes. Feedback, essentially data about past occurrences, lacks context on its own. Without knowing why something happened, we can’t predict future outcomes. In the absence of this understanding, managers may resort to conjectures, which could result in counterproductive behavior.

Before we delve deeper, let’s consider a lighthearted historical anecdote which underscores the shift from baseless assumptions to data-driven predictions:

Of Cats and SUVs

Back in 1590, Princess Anne of Denmark encountered a violent North Atlantic storm during her journey to Scotland, where she was to wed King James I of England. Unable to cross the North Sea, King James braved the tempestuous waters himself to fetch his bride. However, their return voyage was thwarted by an even fiercer storm. After surviving the treacherous journey, they eventually reached Scotland. The prevalent belief then was that witches had conjured these storms in a bid to assassinate the king, supposedly by flinging cats into the sea. This witchcraft narrative led to the prosecution and execution of the accused parties.

Thankfully, we’ve come a long way since attributing storms to cat-tossing witches. In our enlightened age, we know that violent weather changes are, of course, caused by SUVs.

Despite its humorous tone, this anecdote underscores the necessity of transitioning from unfounded beliefs to informed, data-driven forecasts. It aligns with our shift from conventional management strategies to the scientifically grounded Six Sigma methodology. Now, let’s return to our main topic and explore how we can effectively harness the predictive power of Six Sigma in our daily operations.

Possessing a ‘crystal ball’ implies significant power and corresponding responsibility. So, what should Six Sigma leaders and managers do differently compared to traditional ones?

• Understand your goal: A Six Sigma Master Black Belt associate of mine once said, “Six Sigma will swiftly guide you to your destination. Thus, it’s crucial to know where you’re headed.” Rapid resolution of the wrong problem isn’t beneficial. Ensure you comprehend your stakeholder’s desires.
• Embrace process thinking: Process thinking aligns with forward-thinking. The objectives you’re aiming for are outcomes of processes. What feeds these processes? What are the essential drivers of successful outcomes? How do they intertwine to yield the desired outcomes?
• Adopt statistical thinking: Understanding feedback requires a statistical mindset. It’s insufficient to believe you understand something; the evidence should corroborate it. As real-world data are typically messy and noisy, they can misguide you without appropriate statistical methods.
• Tackle opportunities meticulously: Ensure your improvement actions target root causes and not merely symptoms. It’s crucial to have robust control systems in place to cement your changes.
• Expand beyond projects: Six Sigma is not just a project management tool; it’s also a strategy deployment instrument and a culture transformation mechanism. Limiting your use of Six Sigma to projects alone means you’re leaving significant gains unclaimed.
• Prioritize execution: Everyone can talk about an excellent game plan, but executing it well is a different story. Successful teams, including sports teams, often don’t do anything drastically different from average or below-average ones – they simply do it better.

However, let’s not become overconfident. As statistician George E. P. Box stated, “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” It’s important to maintain an open mind to continue learning and refining your models. Stay humble. Your Six Sigma crystal ball will need constant fine-tuning. If you ever find yourself becoming overly confident in your sophisticated analyses, remember Peter Drucker’s wise words on predicting the future: “Forecasting is not a respectable human activity and not worthwhile beyond the shortest of periods.” Wisdom lies in knowing when to rely on your model’s predictions and when to revisit the drawing board.